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May 28th, 2008 at 10:18 am

Who Is More Electable in the General Election

Excerpt from –> Gallup Article:

According to Gallup’s May 12-25 tracking polling, Clinton is running stronger against McCain than is Obama in the 20 states where Clinton can claim popular-vote victory in the Democratic primaries and caucuses. By contrast, Obama runs no better against McCain than does Clinton in the 28 states plus the District of Columbia where he has prevailed. On this basis, Clinton appears to have the stronger chance of capitalizing on her primary strengths in the general election.

However, just focusing on the swing states in Clinton’s and Obama’s respective win columns, the two are fairly similar. Clinton beats McCain in her purple states (including Florida and Michigan) by 49% to 43%, while Obama slightly trails McCain (43% to 46%) in these states — a nine-point swing in the gap in Clinton’s favor. Conversely, Obama beats McCain in his purple states (49% to 41%), while Clinton trails McCain by one point, 45% to 46%, in the same states — also a nine-point swing in the gap in Obama’s favor.

Clinton’s main advantage is that her states — including Florida and Michigan – represent nearly twice as many Electoral College votes as Obama’s. However, removing Florida and Michigan from the equation, her purple states are about comparable to Obama’s in electoral vote size, and thus the two appear more evenly situated.

What gives Clinton an additional boost in national support — but is not likely to increase her chances of winning Electoral College votes in November — is her superior performance over Obama in the red states where she has captured the popular vote in the primaries. These include such typically safe Republican states as Oklahoma, Texas, Indiana, and Arizona.

Editorial comment:  I personally called a number of voters in my area of Arizona.  Based on the calls I made, I honestly believe that the pollers are discounting the power of women!

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